Global Timber Price Trends in The Second Half Of 2023

Since 2023, significant changes have occurred in the global timber industry.

Africa Wood

Firstly, as of April, timber exports from Africa to Vietnam reached their lowest level in years. Secondly, demand from the Chinese market has continued to weaken, resulting in relatively stable FOB prices for African materials in the first half of this year. Based on this year's market demand analysis, we anticipate that the price of African materials will remain stable during the second half of the year.

European Wood

Affected by high inflation in the European economy and reduced demand, many sawmills in Europe announced production cuts in the first half of this year, which led to falling timber prices. In order to clear inventory, German beech exports to China increased by 105% in May, although prices did not increase.With the high cost of energy in Europe last year, it is anticipated that wood prices in Europe will increase during the second half of autumn and winter. Additionally, South American wood is expected to meet market demand.

South American Wood

During the six months since President Lula took office, deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has decreased by 33.6%. Due to a decrease in harvest volume, the FOB price of Brazilian timber has been steadily increasing since last year. It is expected that this upward trend will continue throughout the second half of the year.

North American Wood

For Canada, the ongoing wildfires in the first half of the year had a significant impact. As per the Nasdaq index, the price of timber futures has risen by almost 16% compared to the low point of $483 in June. The wildfire peak period, July-August, is still ongoing. Due to the continuous reduction in inventory, Canadian lumber prices are expected to continue rising for a while during the second half of the year.

In the first half of this year, China, the primary importer of New Zealand Radiata pine, did not experience a considerable surge in demand, causing prices to fluctuate at a low level. Although the New Zealand timber market has now recuperated from the cyclone, prices for Radiata pine logs are not predicted to experience a significant increase until the Chinese construction industry bounces back.

As of the first half of this year, China's log imports dropped by 9.3% year-on-year, totaling to 20.31 million m³. In contrast, sawn timber imports saw a rise of 11.4% year-on-year, reaching a total of 14.31 million m³. The construction and furniture markets are gradually rebounding in 2021. Thus, it is anticipated that sawn timber imports will continue to grow steadily in the second half of this year, and prices will remain relatively stable.